The observations for the validation were taken from 2015-01-02 00:00:00 to 2023-12-30 23:00:00.

Remember that we have on a daily scale the variables sfcWind, tas, pr, tasmax, tasmin and psl and in a monthly scale clt, rsdt,rsds as a predictors. We also have the month , hour, sun’s elevation & azimuth and the daily daylight amount in seconds as a predictors too.

Metric xgboost cnn naive lstm
mae 0.64 0.82 0.83 0.71
cor 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.99
ratio_of_sd 0.99 1.01 0.98 0.98
KGE 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98
amplitude_mae 1.03 1.09 1.95 1.07
maximum_difference 1.49 1.43 1.44 1.38
sign_correlation 0.89 0.79 0.91 0.87
extreme_correlation 0.81 0.76 0.71 0.84
qqplot_mae 0.06 0.35 0.09 0.38
acf_mae 0.02 0.04 0.03 0.01
extremogram_mae 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01

Plots

Important: Right now we are only estimating the upper tail extremogram. Currently we didn’t find a way to estimate the two tales at the same time. We are using quant = .97